The global economy is expected to witness moderate recovery next year. The International Monetary Fund (IMF), the World Bank (WB) and the Organization for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) predict that the global economic growth in 2016 will outpace that of this year. According to the forecast of Goldman Sachs, the global economy will grow at 3.6% in 2016, and three countries -- China, Indonesia and India -- will grow at a rate of higher than 5%.
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Table 1 Predictions of International Organizations on Global Economic Growth in 2016 |
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|
Unit: % |
IMF |
WB |
OECD |
|
Worldwide |
3.6 |
3.3 |
3.6 |
|
Developed economies |
2.2 |
2.4 |
|
|
US |
2.8 |
2.8 |
2.6 |
|
Eurozone |
1.6 |
1.8 |
1.9 |
|
Japan |
1.0 |
1.7 |
1.2 |
|
UK |
2.2 |
2.6 |
2.3 |
|
Canada |
1.7 |
|
2.1 |
|
Emerging markets and developing economies |
4.5 |
5.2 |
|
|
China |
6.3 |
7.0 |
6.5 |
|
India |
7.5 |
7.9 |
7.3 |
|
Russia |
-0.6 |
0.7 |
|
|
Brazil |
-1.0 |
1.1 |
-0.7 |
|
South Africa |
1.3 |
2.1 |
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Against the weak backdrop across the world, the Chinese economy is still an important engine for global growth. According to the working paper published by Ma Jun and others of the People's Bank of China (PBOC), or the Central Bank, the predicted value of real GDP growth rate in 2016 is 6.8%, and nominal fixed-asset investment will speed up, but the real growth rate formed by fixed assets will drop slightly, the total retail sales of consumer goods reflect the rise again in price, and the increase in export growth rate points to the marginal recovery of international demand. Given the stabilizing international commodity price and other factors, it's projected that in 2016 CPI rise range will increase, while the year-on-year (YOY) decline range of PPI will narrow.
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Table 2 Predictions of the PBOC's Working Paper on China's Major Macro Economic Indicators |
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Unit: % |
2014 |
2015 (prediction) |
2016 (prediction) |
|
Real GDP |
7.4 |
6.9 |
6.8 |
|
Fixed-asset investment |
15.7 |
10.3 |
10.8 |
|
Total retail sales of consumer goods |
12.0 |
10.8 |
11.1 |
|
Export |
6.1 |
-2.9 |
3.1 |
|
Import |
0.5 |
-14.8 |
2.3 |
|
Trade surplus/GDP |
3.7 |
5.5 |
5.3 |
|
Current account surplus/GDP |
2.1 |
3.0 |
2.8 |
|
CPI YOY |
2.0 |
1.5 |
1.7 |
|
PPI YOY |
-1.9 |
-5.2 |
-1.8 |
Source: Ma Jun and et al., 2015, Working Paper of the People's Bank of China, Prediction on China's Macro Economy in 2016
According to the summary of predictions of famous institutions both at home and abroad, the average predicted value of GDP growth rate in 2015 of 20 institutions is 6.9%, ranging from 6.8% to 7.0%. The average predicted value of GDP growth rate in 2016 of 19 institutions is 6.6%, ranging from for 6.3% to 6.8%.
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Table 3 Summary of Predictions of Chinese and Foreign Institutions on China's GDP Growth Rate in 2016 |
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Name of institution |
Core team members |
2016 |
Release time |
|
Hong Kong and Shanghai Banking Corporation (HSBC) |
Frederic Neumann; Abanti Bhaumik |
6.7 |
Dec. 11, 2015 |
|
Ping An Securities |
Zhong Wei; Wei Wei; Zhang Xiaowei; Chen Xiao |
6.7 |
Dec. 10, 2015 |
|
Development Bank of Singapore |
|
6.5 |
Dec. 10, 2015 |
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JP Morgan |
Grace Ng; Marvin Chen; Haibin Zhu |
6.6 |
Dec. 9, 2015 |
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Citigroup |
Paul Brennan; Josh Williamson |
6.3 |
Dec. 9, 2015 |
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Citic Securities |
Zhang Wenlang; Huang Wenjing |
6.5 |
Dec. 8, 2015 |
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Macquarie Capital |
Larry Hu; Jerry Peng |
6.5 |
Dec. 7, 2015 |
|
Daiwa Securities |
Kevin Lai |
6.5 |
Dec. 7, 2015 |
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Haitong Securities |
Jiang Chao |
6.5 |
Dec. 7, 2015 |
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Deutsche Bank |
Linan Liu; Perry Kojodjojo |
6.7 |
Dec. 6, 2015 |
|
China International Capital Corporation (CICC) |
Liang Hong |
6.8 |
Dec. 6, 2015 |
|
Huarong Securities |
Ma Zihui |
6.7 |
Dec. 5, 2015 |
|
Industrial Securities |
Wang Han; Wang Lianqing; Lu Yanjin; Jia Xiaojun |
6.7 |
Dec. 3, 2015 |
|
China Merchants Securities |
Xie Yaxuan; Zhang Yiping; Yan Ling; Liu Yaxin |
6.7 |
Nov. 30, 2015 |
|
Morgan Stanley |
Elga Bartsch; Chetan Ahya; Manoj Pradhan |
6.7 |
Nov. 29, 2015 |
|
Guotai Junan Securities |
Ren Zeping; Zhang Qingchang; Zhang Caiting; Song Shuangjie; Feng Yun |
6.5 |
Nov. 25, 2015 |
|
Shenwan Hongyuan Securities |
Li Huiyong; Li Yimin; Qiu Difan; Yu Zizhen |
6.8 |
Nov. 24, 2015 |
|
Guoyuan Securities |
Zheng Min |
6.8 |
Nov. 23, 2015 |
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Samsung Securities |
James Huh; Stephen Lee; Ji Eun Kim |
6.5 |
Nov. 16, 2015 |
Source: Wind