Bio: Stephen Roach was former chairman of Morgan Stanley Asia and the firm’s chief economist for the bulk of his 30-year career at Morgan Stanley, heading up a highly regarded team of economists around the world. Mr. Roach’s current teaching and research program focuses on the impacts of Asia on the broader global economy. His writing and research also addresses globalization, trade policy, the post-crisis policy architecture, and the capital markets implications of global imbalances. Stephen Roach has long been one of Wall Street’s most influential economists. His work has been disseminated widely in the international media.
I am trying to summarize some conclusions and visionary thoughts mentioned by many members and help CMIG look forward into the future.
The first point is related to China. What's our take on China's future? As we understand, today is an important period of China as the 12th Five-Year Plan was concluded and the 13th Five-Year Plan haskicked off. We are now standing between the two Five-Year Plans. This is a very powerful period of structural transition. So we're witnessing the changes from the producer mode to the future consumption mode.
What Mr. Roland Berger said is very important. The transition will be so rapid because IT enables us to leapfrog development and facilitate changes in China's commerce via e-commerce. For one thing, CMIG must utilize these technologies; for another, CMIG must provide these technologies via its products and platforms. China's manufacturing industry is constantly improving its service level, while China's industrialization is strongly driving China's economic development. A service-oriented economy will gradually take over. We will witness such a transition.
Second, China's globalization, to which CMIG will pay attention. Clearly, the direction of "going global" plan is a question deserving discussion. I want to go along with my friend Stephen Orlins who also mentioned that the global focus shall not only be in Europe, as we could discuss the prospects of Europe, but also we can't afford to ignore the powerful dynamics between the United States and China as an agreement on bilateral investment is planned to be signed this year. We hope both countries could sign the bilateral investment agreement in 2015, which will open the two-way capital flow of the two largest economies in the world. This hasn't been finished for now. CMIG must fully capitalize on the opportunities amid such a bilateral investment relationship and changes in the United States and surrounding countries. This is because such an agreement may serve as a strong way to reshape the relationship between the two powers. Undoubtedly, some mentioned climate change and carbon emission previously. Whether we will reduce the carbon content of traditional resources, or seek new alternative energy -- these should be the most challenging issues in the world calling for solutions as they have a great impact on our living quality on the planet. So we need to harness our synergy in all of these fields, make visionary innovation and strategic planning, and accurately seize on market opportunities. So this is a right moment.