2016/06/24

Roland Berger, Honorary Chairman of Roland Berger Strategy Consultants——China Enjoys the Greatest Development Potential Among BR

The  world  has  shifted  from  a  uni-polar  world  dominated  by  the  United  States  to  a  multi-polar  world.  At  least  the  European  Union  (EU)  and  China  have  increasingly  led  the world economy while they are responsible for playing a role in politics. This is  especially  true  when  looking  at  the  rise  of  China's  responsibility.  The  crisis  of  Ukraine  and Russia may lead to a new cold war because  in  the  original  west,  the  United  States, Europe and Russia are subject to big issues,  and  China  is  playing  a  different  role  in this respect. Besides that, it must shoulder different responsibilities. To be sure, this makes China assume larger political responsibilities.
 
 
We  should  make  investment  in  BRICS  countries  and  emerging  countries  with  high  growth rate. But how are these BRICS countries  faring  in  reality?  Brazil's  economy remains moderate without remarkable development. It heavily relies on raw materials and doesn't have development momentum, even if it had before. We've talked more about Russia. India holds various  potentials  in  store,  but  how  does  it  release  these  potentials  remains  elusive.  In  addition  to  the  enabling  potentials,  India  is  also  faced  with  huge  investment  risks.  So  I  personally  don't  think  India  is  strong  enough to play an important role in the world economy  at  least  in  the  coming  five  to  ten  years. South Africa is a small country largely relying on raw materials. China is the only  sound  BRICS  country  with  a  7.4%  of  average  annual  growth  rate  --  the  only  one.  Why China is the only one? This is because  in  terms  of  absolute  growth,  the  average  annual  growth  rate  of  China  is 10%,  11%  or  12%.  China  maintained  such  a  growth  rate  ten  years  back  and  is  now  still  growing  rapidly.  It  makes  sense  to  say  that China is the largest and fastest growing economy  in  the  world,  and  I  believe  after  a period of integration and adjustment,  China,  especially  the  wealthy  people in China's east, will invest in education, infrastructure and develop themselves  based  on  opportunities  and  China's  demands.  Therefore,  it's  likely  for  China  to  return  to  8%  of  growth  rate  two  or  three  years  later.  China  will  remain  as  the  overriding  pillar  of  sound  economy  of  the  world  growth.  In  particular,  for  industrialized  countries,  it  needs  more  innovation  and  will  contribute more technologies to the world. As 
for  now,  some  smaller  Asian  countries,  and  larger  countries  like  Indonesia,  as  well  as  Africa  have  showed  some  dynamics  in  fact.  However,  China  is  a  mature  country  with  all  potentials to play a decisive role in the world economy.  It  is  also  duty-bound  to  take  on major  responsibilities  of  the  world  either  in  politics, peace, or in environmental stewardship. This also encompasses contributions made to the world economy in the meantime.