Roland Berger, Honorary Chairman of Roland Berger Strategy Consultants——China Enjoys the Greatest Development Potential Among BR
The world has shifted from a uni-polar world dominated by the United States to a multi-polar world. At least the European Union (EU) and China have increasingly led the world economy while they are responsible for playing a role in politics. This is especially true when looking at the rise of China's responsibility. The crisis of Ukraine and Russia may lead to a new cold war because in the original west, the United States, Europe and Russia are subject to big issues, and China is playing a different role in this respect. Besides that, it must shoulder different responsibilities. To be sure, this makes China assume larger political responsibilities.
We should make investment in BRICS countries and emerging countries with high growth rate. But how are these BRICS countries faring in reality? Brazil's economy remains moderate without remarkable development. It heavily relies on raw materials and doesn't have development momentum, even if it had before. We've talked more about Russia. India holds various potentials in store, but how does it release these potentials remains elusive. In addition to the enabling potentials, India is also faced with huge investment risks. So I personally don't think India is strong enough to play an important role in the world economy at least in the coming five to ten years. South Africa is a small country largely relying on raw materials. China is the only sound BRICS country with a 7.4% of average annual growth rate -- the only one. Why China is the only one? This is because in terms of absolute growth, the average annual growth rate of China is 10%, 11% or 12%. China maintained such a growth rate ten years back and is now still growing rapidly. It makes sense to say that China is the largest and fastest growing economy in the world, and I believe after a period of integration and adjustment, China, especially the wealthy people in China's east, will invest in education, infrastructure and develop themselves based on opportunities and China's demands. Therefore, it's likely for China to return to 8% of growth rate two or three years later. China will remain as the overriding pillar of sound economy of the world growth. In particular, for industrialized countries, it needs more innovation and will contribute more technologies to the world. As
for now, some smaller Asian countries, and larger countries like Indonesia, as well as Africa have showed some dynamics in fact. However, China is a mature country with all potentials to play a decisive role in the world economy. It is also duty-bound to take on major responsibilities of the world either in politics, peace, or in environmental stewardship. This also encompasses contributions made to the world economy in the meantime.